There are so many factors to keep in count, and it's not an easy job predicting it from this early stage.
Look at Front Line Force for example, the project died yesterday (Sunday, 28th November) due to a silly conflict between a level designer and the project leader. To be honest, this wasnt the only reason... but it was the final cause.
As I said; there's too many factors with projects like these. So many ways to live and so many ways to die.